While many of the world’s biggest events are not foreseen as far in advance – see Russia and Ukraine in 2022 – next year contains some seismic happenings which will be well telegraphed and debated nonstop.
Not since 1992 has the US presidential election and the UK general election been held in the same year. The consequences these two events can bring to two major global economies are vast.
Bank of England rate setter Catherine Mann breaks ranks with gloomy inflation prediction
Clearly in the UK the mood music is pointing to a change of regime, with the Labour Party odds on to take control of government and consign the Conservatives to a period of political soul searching.
The US meanwhile has the spectre of Donald Trump and his criminal convictions overhanging the whole proceeding, as well as an immensely divided country following two incredibly charged elections.
Now, the last iterations of these elections had two main dividing lines – Brexit and the pandemic. So, with just over a year out, can we expect them to be as similarly dramatic as 2019 and 2020, and what is it going to mean for markets and investors?
While we may be missing the backdrop of Brexit – though it hovers as an unmentionable in the political background – and the pandemic, these elections are being held in an environment of slowing economic growth and inflation remaining persistent. While the main battlegrounds aren’t as necessarily eye catching, they are equally as consequential.
For central banks, this poses a significant challenge. Inflation is not expected to get back to target, while their moves to date and future decisions will have an impact on the future economic trajectory. To say their moves will influence the next prime minister or president is an understatement.
For now, it appears the Federal Reserve is in a holding pattern of keeping rates where they are and unlikely to move any higher, preferring to wait for the effects of its 11 rate rises to feed into the real economy. Inflation has moderated, but it will still be difficult to get it back to target, and thus could more action be required if things don’t trend in the right direction?
What the US has going for it is that growth is less of a concern and the economy has been incredibly robust. However, moving into an election cycle and given how divisive things will be, the Fed is unlikely to want to upset either side, or spook the electorate. The Fed, therefore, is unlikely to want to push further in monetary tightening, which would almost guarantee a weaker economic environment. Markets may need to prepare for a more accommodative stance from Jerome Powell and co.
The UK meanwhile faces an economic situation that has more nuances attached to it. The impacts of Brexit are beginning to be felt, while inflation remains higher than nearly all its comparable peers. While never our base case, forecasts of recession in 2023 now appear to be wrong. But that news means the pain is likely just delayed until 2024, coinciding with the election.
Central bank divergence looms as developed economies face macroeconomic variance
The Bank of England is still looking to raise interest rates, even as economic growth begins to grind to a halt and potentially even contract. All the action to date will begin to bite properly in 2024 and this will ultimately have an impact on the election. Andrew Bailey has been clear that inflation is the primary data point it is worried about, and, as such, if it doesn’t moderate further, we could see an occasional rise in 2024. Unlikely, but as we said, some of the biggest events are not telegraphed in advance.
For investors hoping for a return to more sanguine times, they will be waiting a while longer. 2024 promises to be year of both the known and the unknown and this means portfolios will need to be agile in order to take advantage of the tactical opportunities these events throw up. Longer-term it is of less consequence whether Conservative or Republican, Labour or Democrat wins.
But while that may be the case, there is no getting away from the fact that the role of the central bank has risen in prominence since the pandemic, and their impact is going nowhere. In 2024, they ultimately hold one of the keys to power. Their difficult task is only going to get more complicated the closer we get to polling day.
Marcus Brookes is chief investment officer at Quilter Investors
