CNBC Daily Open: Consumer demand is flagging

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Any positive momentum stocks had on Monday dissipated yesterday, as downbeat economic signs weighed on indexes.

• Some progress on averting the U.S. debt ceiling was made in Tuesday’s meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and other lawmakers. The negotiations — which mostly involve work requirements for social programs — will continue as direct one-to-one talks between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ally and two White House aides, who will act on Biden’s behalf.

• U.S. stocks dipped Tuesday on the back of weak economic data and disappointing earnings by Home Depot (more on that below). European markets traded lower as well. The Stoxx 600 Index lost 0.42% as the European Union confirmed its prior estimate of 0.1% first-quarter GDP growth in the euro zone.

• Home Depot reported its biggest miss in revenue expectations in more than 20 years. The retailer’s fiscal first-quarter revenue dropped 4.2% from $38.91 billion to $37.26 billion. Adding to the bad news, Home Depot forecast a decline in sales of between 2% to 5% for the fiscal year, compared with its previous prediction of flat sales for the period. The retailer’s shares closed 2.15% lower.

• Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting took place Tuesday. Some highlights: CEO Elon Musk said the company will deliver its first Cybertrucks this year; the “next gen” Tesla Roadster may go into production in 2024; a humanoid robot named Optimus is under development at Tesla. And no, Musk isn’t planning on stepping down from Tesla.

• PRO Market jitters are pushing investors into consumer staples, traditionally seen as defensive stocks — but market analysis shows those names are overbought and may have little-to-no upside.

Both the Dow and the S&P were badly affected by Home Depot’s weak earnings report and lackluster forecast. The home improvement retailer is “the most impactful retailer in the price-weighted Dow — having almost double the weight of Walmart,” wrote CNBC’s Robert Hum, and it has “both a greater index and earnings influence in the S&P 500 due to the Walton family’s hefty stake in Walmart that reduces its weighting in the main equity benchmark.”

Home Depot’s disappointing performance suggests that consumer demand is flagging. Indeed, retail sales in April rose a weaker-than-expected 0.4% for the month, according to an advanced sales report. That’s half of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.8%. Moreover, the figure isn’t adjusted for inflation — which rose 0.4% in April — so consumers’ spending just kept up with the pace of inflation, CNBC’s Jeff Cox noted.

(But there could soon be an upturn for the home improvement retailer: Homebuilder sentiment is positive for the first time in nearly a year.)

Target and TJX, two giant retailers, report earnings later today, and will give a clearer picture of how the U.S. consumer is faring in the face of persistent inflation and a tighter labor market. And that’s an important piece of data, considering that U.S. private consumption contributes to almost 70% of the country’s nominal GDP.

Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.