The paper’s authors, Laura Alfaro of Harvard Business School and Davin Chor of Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business, documented a decrease in the share of US imports from China and a corresponding increase in the share of US imports from Vietnam and Mexico between 2017 and 2022.
The shift was spurred by US government policies including tariffs, which were aimed at decoupling the American and Chinese economies.
But Chinese firms appear to be finding ways to mitigate the impact, namely through increased exports to and foreign direct investment in Vietnam and Mexico.
“The US’ indirect supply-chain links to China remain intact; along some dimensions — through China’s economic ties with Vietnam and Mexico — these indirect links have even been intensifying,” Alfaro and Chor wrote.“Even though the US may be reallocating its sourcing and imports toward Vietnam and Mexico, it may de facto remain connected with and dependent on China through third-countries, including through Vietnam and Mexico.”
