Catch the rain, better monsoon than Later

As the monsoon progresses slowly across India, there’s tension in the farm sector. Sowing of key crops like paddy, oilseeds and pulses has been delayed, which may lead to lower output, and that has pushed prices up 5-15% of rice and rice products, besides jowar, bajra and chicken. Analysts expect food prices to stay firm, or increase further till rainfall turns favourable for sowing. The next 7-10 days will be crucial, with all eyes on El Nino‘s possible impact on monsoon’s progress since, in the past, it has led to below-normal monsoons. On Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the stalled monsoon is likely to gain momentum in the next 3-4 days and could cover key rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane-growing regions. India has, in June, received 33% lower rainfall than normal. In some states, the deficit is as high as 95%.

There are good reasons for such interest in the monsoon’s progress. 47% of Indians depend on farm income, nearly half of the agricultural lands depend on rain for irrigation, and rains are crucial for recharging reservoirs and aquifers, key for drinking and power generation, and ensure moisture for rabi crops. Robust harvests can also rein in food inflation.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change has led to a noticeable decline in rainfall, with monsoon deficits occurring with greater frequency in South Asia. So, GoI and state governments must focus on building water storage capacity at the village level to catch the rain where it falls, when it falls. The recommendation of a GoI panel – 70% of MGNREGA funds be used in poor and water-deficient blocks, and employment generation must be linked to creating assets to replenish water bodies – must be considered seriously, since water, along with climate-resilient seeds and timely information to farmers, is vital to building a thriving farm sector, and a robust economy.