Today’s puzzle is about voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters what they really think.
In elections past, right wing parties like the Conservatives have often done better than opinion polls predict. One explanation is that ‘shy Tory’ voters lie to pollsters because they are embarrassed to admit their preferences in public. With the US polls neck and neck, the existence of shy Trump voters could decide the election. (As could shy Harris voters, of course.)
Is there a way to encourage voters to overcome any embarrassment and respond honestly?
The shy voter puzzle
Imagine an election with two candidates, say Trump and Harris. Many voters are embarrassed to admit who they vote for.
You are a pollster, going from door to door. You have a coin in your pocket. Your aim is to find the percentages who will vote for each candidate.
Can you think of a polling method that makes voters comfortable to give their honest preference, even if they are embarrassed to admit their preferred candidate to you?
The method must result in a pretty accurate poll, although it might not be 100 per cent accurate.
I’ll be back at 5pm UK with a solution. PLEASE NO SPOILERS. Please discuss times you have lied to pollsters.
Talking of coins in pockets, please allow me a pre-Christmas plug for my new book, Think Twice: Solve the Puzzles That (Almost) Everyone Gets Wrong. The idea behind the book is to make you think about thinking – while enjoying the pleasure of being misled. The questions are not ‘trick’ questions; instead, they reveal our biases and flawed reasoning.
Think Twice: Solve the Simple Puzzles (Almost) Everyone Gets Wrong. To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply. (In the US, the book is called Puzzle Me Twice.)
I’ve been setting a puzzle here on alternate Mondays since 2015. I’m always on the look-out for great puzzles. If you would like to suggest one, email me.
