India experiences some of the world’s highest maximum temperatures. Heatwaves are projected to increase in intensity, frequency and duration. This might exacerbate precarious conditions faced by farmers, and could be a significant headwind for agricultural production, cascading on access, availability and affordability of food.
In the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains, an area that produces 14-15% of the global wheat yield, a 50% reduction in wheat yield due to heat stress is projected by 2050. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns also diminish quality (protein and micro-nutrient content), especially in staple crops like rice and wheat.
This has a higher significance for the agriculture system, which continues to be led by smallholder producers, farming on small plot sizes (less than 1.5 ha) and with high reliance on rain-fed irrigation. More significant investments in innovations to keep small-scale producers ahead of a dynamic nexus of abiotic (drought, flood) and biotic (pests and disease) threats, using soil and water resources more efficiently, building greater capacity to assess risks, and forecasting threats and taking action is an important strategy for creating resilient and adaptive systems.Announcements of schemes, such as accelerating R&D efforts in developing new climate-resilient crop varieties, enhancing oilseed production and DPI for agriculture, including digital crop surveys, are welcome as they will offer better resilience and adaptation to the agriculture sector and, thereby, to close to 50% of India’s population that continue to depend on it as an important or only source of livelihood.Investments in agriculture, especially in the context of changing climate, will assure several crucial things: Diversified income sources and asset bases among farmers.
Protection and adaptation capacity to climate shocks.
Opportunities for private sector, such as higher investments in better farm inputs, irrigation infrastructure, post-harvest, etc.
The budget’s impetus on infra, rural roads and energy will directly benefit the farm sector. In the last two decades, India has witnessed significant progress in rural road infra and electrification. Assuring a stable power supply through emphasis on higher investments in alternate sources of energy, such as solar, would help address a key economic opportunity around agro-processing.
This would assure value creation from agriculture by value-adding and preserving the harvest, higher income for farmers and better prices for the consumer. Increasing a farmer’s holding capacity (ability to store the harvest) will be an important lever towards price stabilisation. Emphasis on aggregation through producer organisations and cooperatives will help realise the value of economies of scale.
FM’s mention of India’s demand growth for energy is well noted. Transition to a low-carbon economy is also gaining momentum. This demand will have to be supported with decarbonisation investments. Ethylene production is an important sector for India to decarbonise, as it is both energy- and emissions-intensive. Key steps in the country’s ‘Net Zero 2050’ scenario include expanding the circular economy for better waste management, reducing demand for materials like plastic by 10% by 2050, alternate sources of energy and a shift to low-carbon industrial processes.
The country must galvanise its greatest asset – its people. Indians are among the lowest per-capita energy users and carbon emitters globally. Harnessing the innovation capacity, entrepreneurial spirit and track record of its farmers, who made the country among the top five food producers in the world, will be a dominant force in the journey towards ‘Viksit Bharat’.
(The writer is senior adviser, global growth and opportunities, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)
