Britain’s design has been chosen for a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, as the leaders of the Aukus pact gathered in San Diego to declare they would stand “shoulder to shoulder” in the face of Chinese aggression.
The security partnership, which military top brass believe is the most significant for Britain since America helped it become one of the few nuclear powers in 1958, was hailed by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and his US and Australian counterparts as “historic”.
Under the terms of a deal that was 18 months in the making, it was announced on Monday that British submarines will start to be rotated to Australia from as early as 2027 to build its knowledge, workforce and infrastructure in preparation for the new fleet of vessels.
The UK’s first new class of Aukus submarines are expected to be seaworthy by the end of the 2030s, with Australia receiving theirs in the early 2040s.
In the meantime, Australian military will embed in US and UK submarine bases at greater superiority levels this year to start training, with the US hoping to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines and a further two if needed.
It is thought there could be up to 20 British submarines that will replace the current Astute class, with the new fleet built by BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce – principally in Barrow-in-Furness.
Although China has sought to sow doubts about the scheme, arguing it would have a “grave nuclear proliferation risk” and could violate an international treaty, the three Aukus countries said they had set the highest standard and worked closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
For over 60 years, they argue, the UK and US have operated more than 500 naval nuclear reactors that have collectively travelled more than 150m miles without incident.
Speaking at the Point Loma naval base in San Diego, California, Sunak, the US president, Joe Biden, and the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, vowed the move would contribute to “global security and stability”.
In the face of concerns about growing military and economic hostility from China, the leaders said in a joint statement: “For more than a century, our three nations have stood shoulder to shoulder, along with other allies and partners, to help sustain peace, stability, and prosperity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific.
“We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order.
“The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come.”
Although Britain’s closest threat geographically – in light of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – is Russia, military figures believe China will begin to feel closer over the coming decades.
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If the ice caps in the Arctic continue to melt, there are concerns China’s surplus naval fleet could begin to operate on Europe’s doorstep.
With Taiwan holding elections next year, some western countries fear that could provide the impetus for an attempt by China to seize control of the island.
Aukus is not anticipated to create a domino effect – meaning it will probably remain a three-way trilateral relationship rather than bringing other countries into the pact.
However, the UK government is confident it has captured the imagination of observers and hopes they will align with the Aukus objectives. That could include more military joint exercises, but go as far as prompting a rethink of relying too heavily on Chinese investment and trade ties.
While Sunak said this week China posed an “epoch-defining challenge” to the world order, he has resisted classifying the country as a “threat” in the updated integrated review. The prime minister faced down hawks in his own party who want a stronger approach and does not believe deteriorating relations with Beijing are inevitable.
