That’s how it seems, anyway. At the first glimpse of positive feeling, BoE governor Andrew Bailey invariably pops up to tip a bucket of cold water over all of us. Now he’s just done it again.
It’s a shame because things really are looking up as markets sense inflation has peaked and central bankers such as the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and even the dear old BoE can finally stop hiking interest rates and start cutting them instead.
That’s brilliant news, as rising borrowing costs have made us all feel poorer, especially homeowners.
They have also squeezed the life out of the economy, which shrank 0.3 percent in October. Higher interest rates are the price we pay for defeating inflation, but inflation is now on the run.
In the US, inflation fell to a five-month low of just 3.1 percent in October, another step closer to its target rate of two percent.
Fed chair Jerome Powell is openly talking up the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024, possibly as many as three of 0.25 percent each.
While the BoE’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) held base rates at 5.25 percent for the third meeting in a row on Thursday, it’s not even thinking about cutting. Incredibly, three members actually called for yet another hike.
What planet are they on?
Another increase would be totally unnecessary and the last thing we need. Inflation plunged to 4.6 percent in October and is expected to edge down when the next figure is published on Wednesday. The economy is shrinking, people are suffering and the BoE has done enough, so why can’t it say so?
Its next job is to cut rates and get the economy moving again, not blether on about more hikes.
Let’s be generous to Bailey and say that markets may just have raced ahead of themselves in anticipating a slew of rate cuts in 2024, and need cooling down.
But the last thing we need is his version of the ice bucket challenge, because a little bit of optimism right now could go a long, long way.
Just look at the US, where the stock market has just hit an all-time high. We need some of that positivity, not less.
You’d think Bailey would relent. It is Christmas, after all. This is supposed to be a time of good cheer but no, he can’t allow that. So out comes his trusty bucket.
On Thursday, Bailey dampened the mood by saying there’s “still some way to go” in the battle against inflation. The MPC warned of further tightening if price pressures persist.
My worry now is that the gloomy old BoE will keeping base rates too high for too long.
That risks tipping us into a totally unnecessary recession, destroying jobs and businesses, in a battle to defeat an enemy that is already on the run.
READ MORE: Bank of England slammed over ‘schizophrenic’ attitude to interest rates
Bailey is overcompensating for the disastrous mistake he made two years ago, when he claimed inflation was “transitory” and failed to take early action to head it off. That allowed it to rage even further out of control.
It was just one of a string of errors by an organisation I’ve previously described as the world’s worst forecaster.
The BoE said we would spend all of 2023 in recession when we didn’t spend a single day. It is trapped in group think and blames others when it gets things wrong.
Now it’s on the brink of making another huge mistake. I’m not alone in thinking this, market consensus is that base rates will fall by a full percentage point next year, to 4.25 percent.
Liz Martins, UK economist at HSBC, says the inflation risks “have clearly receded in recent weeks” and predicts a first rate cut next August, with more to follow.
Things are looking up and people have noticed. Consumer confidence actually rose for the second month in a row in December, according to GfK.
House prices are holding firm. Wages are rising higher than inflation (something else the BoE hates).
We seem likely to avoid a recession again in 2024. Only one man stands in the way. If anybody needs dousing with a bucket of water it’s Andrew Bailey. It might just wake him up.
