Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the U.S. and China are at the brink of a hot war. He has outlined a scenario where “we will see the transition from contained pre-hot-war conflicts to a brutal World War III.”
Ray Dalio Warns of ‘a Brutal World War III’
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio shared his thoughts on the conflict in the Middle East and the potential for World War III in an opinion piece published on Linkedin on Oct. 12. Noting that while “Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, and Russia are in hot wars,” Dalio stressed that currently: “The major powers (the US and China) are not, though they remain at the brink of one.” He added:
It appears that we are at a very critical juncture in which we will soon see if the Israel-Hamas war spreads and how far it spreads.
Moreover, he said it remains to be seen “whether the great powers are forces for peace (and will back away from the brink of direct conflict) or get involved (and cross the brink).”
Commenting specifically on the war between Israel and Hamas, the Bridgewater founder predicted: “This war has a high risk of leading to several other conflicts of different types in a number of places, and it is likely to have harmful effects that will extend beyond those in Israel and Gaza.” He continued: “Primarily for those reasons, it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from about 35% to about 50% over the last two years since I wrote my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.”
The Bridgewater founder added that the “brutal wars” seen between Israel and Hamas as well as Russia and Ukraine “are more likely to spread than subside.” Dalio cautioned:
These two hot wars make clear how horrific hot wars are. If they spread to other countries, most importantly the major countries, there will be a much more horrific hot world war.
“Based on the perspective I have gained from studying history and from my over 50 years of experiences betting on what’s likely to happen, it seems to me that the Israel-Hamas war is another classic, unfortunate step toward a more violent and encompassing international war. In other words, it’s part of a larger war dynamic,” he opined. “It is also likely that the wars involving Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, and Russia will have big effects on the ongoing great power conflicts, and it is very likely that Hamas acted with support from more powerful countries.”
Dalio further stressed: “We should recognize that these two hot wars (the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war) are not just between the parties directly involved in them … they will have big effects on the countries who are allies and enemies of the four sides in these two seemingly irreconcilable wars.”
Emphasizing that “Fortunately, the progression toward a world war between the biggest powers (the US and China) has not yet crossed the irreversible line from being containable (which it is now) to becoming a brutal war between the biggest powers and their allies,” the Bridgewater founder warned:
If these major powers do have direct fighting with each other, in which one side kills a significant number of people on the other side, we will see the transition from contained pre-hot-war conflicts to a brutal World War III.
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