Brexit deal ‘stifling’ UK-EU trade; German investor morale tumbles

Brexit deal hurting UK-EU goods trade, and it’s getting worse

Red tape on British businesses created by the Brexit trade deal has led to a sharp fall in UK-EU goods trade, a new report shows.

Academics at Aston Business School have analysed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade relations – and found that trade is down by over a quarter.

They say:

The findings reveal a sharp decline in both UK exports and imports with the EU, underscoring the enduring challenges posed by Brexit on the UK’s trade competitiveness.

Between 2021 and 2023, monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU, the report shows.

A chart showing UK trade — Photograph: Aston Business School

It also shows there has been a significant reduction in the range of goods the UK trades with the EU, due to the “profound and ongoing stifling” effects of the TCA.

This includes a “significant decline” in consumer goods exports to the EU and corresponding UK imports, which suggests the UK is dropping out of EU value chains.

However, the UK remains dependent on the EU for intermediate and capital goods.

And worryingly, these problems are expected to intensify.

The report says:

The study highlights that the negative impacts of the TCA have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years. This suggests that the transition in UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit is not merely a short-term disruption but reflects deeper structural changes likely to persist.

The key problem is that the TCA, agreed on Christmas Eve 202 by Boris Johnson’s government, has created many non-tariff measures (NTMs) – such as checks on goods – which have gummed up the flow of trade.

Agriculture and food products exports have been particularly impacted, the report shows.

Last night, we reported that planned post-Brexit checks on fruit and vegetables brought into Britain from the EU have been delayed for the third time, amid concerns from suppliers that they could lead to higher prices for shoppers.

for the benefit of any old Etonians reading.)”,”elementId”:”f2cc541d-2e77-47f3-8147-17071933026d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

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Root and tubercle vegetables (not including ware or seed potatoes): Yams, beets, parsnips, turnips, rutabagas, carrots, yuca, kohlrabi, onions, garlic, celery root.

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Fruit of Fragaria L: Strawberries

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Fruits of Malus Mill: Apples

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Fruits of Persea americana Mill: Avocado

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Fruits of Pyrus L: Pear

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Fruit of Vaccinium L: cranberry, blueberry, bilberry (whortleberry), lingonberry (cowberry), and huckleberry.

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Fruit of Rubus L: Raspberries, blackberries, and dewberries

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The change should mean there won’t be extra friction at the border when these fruit and vegetables are imported to the UK.

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Jack reported last night that the planned post-Brexit checks on fruit and vegetables brought into Britain from the EU have been delayed for the third time, until next July, so ministers can judge the impact of the new rules.

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The future of shipmaker Harland & Wolff remains uncertain today, after the company announced on Monday it expects to fall into administration soon.

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The company’s interim executive chairman Russell Downs has said there is a strong case for keeping the company’s four shipyards under a single owner.

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He told the BBC’s Today programme that keeping the yards together was “sensible from an operating perspective”.

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He added:

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“Some yards may be owned by one owner with other yards owned by another, so we’ll just have to see where the process gets to.”

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Downs said all the yards currently have work ongoing, and a “strong and capable business plan”, that will see them flourish again in future, once the current financial difficulties have been overcome.

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After months of fraught negotiations as Harland & Wolff scrambled to find funding to upgrade the shipyards, the company announced yesterday that it is insolvent and expects to appoint administrators from Teneo soon.

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Red tape on British businesses created by the Brexit trade deal has led to a sharp fall in UK-EU goods trade, a new report shows.

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Academics at Aston Business School have analysed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade relations – and found that trade is down by over a quarter.

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They say:

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The findings reveal a sharp decline in both UK exports and imports with the EU, underscoring the enduring challenges posed by Brexit on the UK’s trade competitiveness.

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Between 2021 and 2023, monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU, the report shows.

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chart showing UK trade”,”credit”:”Photograph: Aston Business School”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It also shows there has been a significant reduction in the range of goods the UK trades with the EU, due to the “profound and ongoing stifling” effects of the TCA.

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This includes a “significant decline” in consumer goods exports to the EU and corresponding UK imports, which suggests the UK is dropping out of EU value chains.

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However, the UK remains dependent on the EU for intermediate and capital goods.

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And worryingly, these problems are expected to intensify.

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The report says:

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\n

The study highlights that the negative impacts of the TCA have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years. This suggests that the transition in UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit is not merely a short-term disruption but reflects deeper structural changes likely to persist.

\n

“,”elementId”:”681a18c0-4d32-464d-b8a9-49c28942130a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

“,”elementId”:”97ddeebf-553a-4a9e-a32a-e3dc2d51f6b8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Agriculture and food products exports have been particularly impacted, the report shows.

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“,”elementId”:”5db01dcc-f450-44dc-982a-396ab3848bd7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”UK’s post-Brexit checks on fruit and vegetables delayed for a third time”,”elementId”:”68f4dfa6-e751-4ac1-91b1-67a76d36dded”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/16/uk-post-brexit-fruit-and-vegetables-delayed-eu”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726555365000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.42 CEST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726559206000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.46 CEST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726555911000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.51 CEST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.51″,”title”:”Brexit deal hurting UK-EU goods trade, and it’s getting worse”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 17 Sep 2024 12.18 CEST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 17 Sep 2024 08.25 CEST”},{“id”:”66e91ffc8f084d7e1128dda7″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Amazon has announced it would require employees to return to the office five days a week, from the start of next year.

“,”elementId”:”8c6794fb-95fb-499e-8a12-55d3d5f97dac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Andy Jassy, Amazon’s CEO, said in a note to employees.

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\n

“We’ve decided that we’re going to return to being in the office the way we were before the onset of COVID. When we look back over the last five years, we continue to believe that the advantages of being together in the office are significant.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”0699633a-159e-4234-895f-e53c2a0c76f9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The e-commerce giant’s previous office attendance requirement for its workers was three days a week. Amazon workers can claim “extenuating circumstances” or request exceptions from senior leadership, according to Jassy’s memo.

“,”elementId”:”860a43cf-cdf7-4830-8909-afa508243f03″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

\n

“If anything, the last 15 months we’ve been back in the office at least three days a week has strengthened our conviction about the benefits.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”2612c66a-0933-497a-90ce-e3dd877ebf36″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

He cited improved collaboration and connection between teams as reasons for the new requirement as well as the ability to “strengthen our culture”.

“,”elementId”:”72686096-41cc-45d0-ab58-4314ac7b140e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Amazon mandates five days a week in office starting next year”,”elementId”:”3bbdebed-095b-4cf7-be15-b79dd55b060e”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/sep/16/amazon-in-person-office-policy”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726554350000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.25 CEST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726554503000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.28 CEST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726554504000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.28 CEST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.28″,”title”:”Amazon mandates five days a week in office starting next year”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 17 Sep 2024 12.18 CEST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 17 Sep 2024 08.25 CEST”},{“id”:”66e910588f08f5de71dc2633″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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It’s a tale of two tech companies this morning, as Microsoft announces a monster cash return to shareholders… and Apple is hit by fears of weak demand for its new iPhone 16.

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Microsoft surprised Wall Street last night by unveiling a new $60bn (£45bn) stock-buyback program – a way of returning excess cash to investors – and raising its quarterly dividend by 10%.

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The plan matches Microsoft’s largest ever share buyback plan, according to Bloomberg.

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The scale of the move was unexpected, as Microsoft has been ramping up its investment to support artificial intelligence. The company had also disappointed shareholders at the end of July when it reported a slight slowdown in growth at its Azure cloud computing arm.

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Its net income in the last year rose 22%, to $88bn, leaving it with over $75bn of cash on its books.

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Microsoft is currently the world’s second largest company, worth around $3.2tn, behind Apple (at $3.3tn).

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That gap narrowed yesterday, as Apple’s shares fell by 2.8% following analyst report that demand for the iPhone 16 was weaker than hoped.

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Early pre-order data from BofA Global Research revealed shorter global shipping times for the iPhone 16 Pro models compared with last year’s 15 Pro models, in the first three days of pre-order sales.

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TF International Securities’ analyst Ming-Chi Kuo calculated that pre-order sales for the iPhone 16 are around 12.7% lower than for last year’s iPhone 15.

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Having analysed data on pre-order sales, delivery times and shipments, Kuo explained in a post on Medium:

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The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.

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Apple Shares Slump as Analyst Warns of Weaker iPhone 16 Demand https://t.co/QtI8oyQ9xK

— BNN Bloomberg (@BNNBloomberg) September 16, 2024

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However, not every analyst was concerned by the lack of meaningful growth in iPhone pre-orders.

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D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria points out that the phone’s AI features are being rolled out gradually.

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… which means the upgrade cycle will likely materialize over the next 12-18 months.”

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The agenda

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10am BST: ZEW index of German economic confidence

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1.30pm BST: US retail sales for August

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2.15pm BST: US industrial production for August

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3pm BST: NAHB index of US housing market

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Key events

UK is Europe’s most-preferred stock market, as Germany lags behind

Germany is the most unloved stock market in Europe, a new poll from Bank of America (BofA) shows.

BofA’s latest European Fund Manager Survey also found that the UK remains the most preferred equity market in Europe.

The survey also found that investors are “increasingly bearish” (ie, less optimistic) on European equities in the near term. It says:

A net 20% of investors see downside for European equities over the coming months, a year-to-date high, with a plurality of 35% seeing weakening growth momentum as the most likely catalyst for a correction.

A net 43% still project upside for the market over the coming twelve months, but this is down sharply from 62% last month.

Some snap reaction to the weak ZEW survey of German economic sentiment:

Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. Oh dear God, Germany. Economic expectations significantly lowered again. [ZEW 3.6 vs 17.0 expected; prior 19.2]. Germany is in such deep trouble, it’s truly shocking.

— Marc-André Fongern (@Fongern_FX) September 17, 2024

German investor morale tumbles more than expected in September

Hopes of a recovery in Germany’s economy are fading, according to the latest poll of investor sentiment.

In a reminder that all isn’t rosy across the channel, the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany has fallen to just 3.6 points, down from 19.2 points in August. That’s the lowest reading since last October.

The survey found that economic optimism has “almost completely dwindled”, while investors’ assessment of the economic situation in Germany also worsened.

ZEW president professor Achim Wambach says:

“The hope for a swift improvement in the economic situation is visibly fading.

In the latest survey, we once again observe a noticeable decline in economic expectations for Germany. The number of optimists and pessimists is now evenly balanced.”

Germany’s economy is on the brink of recession, after shrinking slightly in the second quarter of the year. High energy costs have hit its industrial base, which is also struggling to cope from competition from Chinese carmakers.

Netflix’s Sarandos defends Baby Reindeer

Mark Sweney

Netflix co-chief Ted Sarandos has defended Baby Reindeer, which is the subject of a £133m ($170m) law suit filed by the real-life woman portrayed as the stalker in the hit show, saying that it is “abundantly clear” that it is a dramatised story.

The black comedy-drama, which picked up six Emmy awards on Sunday night, has become one of Netflix’s biggest hits of all time.

The series is the account of creator and star Richard Gadd, who plays the lead role of comedian Donny Dunn, and his experience with a stalker known as “Martha”.

Following the debut of the series, which opens with the line “This is a true story”, Fiona Harvey came forward identifying herself as the “real Martha”.

Harvey has filed a lawsuit in California against Netflix alleging defamation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, negligence, gross negligence and violations of her right of publicity.

“We are facilitating story tellers to tell their stories,” said Sarandos, speaking at the Royal Television Society conference in London this morning.

“This is Richard’s true story. Baby Reindeer is his story, he told his story, it is not a documentary.”

In an interview with journalist and writer Kirsty Wark he was asked if the controversy about Netflix labelling Baby Reindeer as a “true story” might lead to the streamer having a “stronger editorial grip”.

In the show, Gadd’s stalker was imprisoned. In real life, the alleged stalker says she has received no conviction.

“There are elements of the story that are dramatised,” said Sarandos.

“It is abundantly clear that there is dramatisation involved. This debate [about Baby Reindeer’s status as a true story] is not happening anywhere else in thew world. Just the UK.”

In his Emmy awards acceptance speech on Sunday, Gadd urged aspiring writers to “take risks”.

“The only constant across any success in television is good storytelling,” he told the audience.

“Good storytelling speaks to our times… take risks, push boundaries, explore the uncomfortable, dare to fail in order to achieve.”

On Tuesday, Sarandos said that Netflix has just completed a “first look” deal with Gadd for his next projects.

Last week, a federal judge in the US set the trial date for the Baby Reindeer case for 6 May next year.

Revealed: the EU fruit and vegetable imports cut to ‘low risk’

The UK government has downgraded the risk rating on a variety of fruit and vegetables from the EU and Switzerland, meaning they can be imported without any checks or charges even once delayed checks finally come in.

And my colleague Jack Simpson has the list, complete with translations from Latin (for the benefit of any old Etonians reading.)

Root and tubercle vegetables (not including ware or seed potatoes): Yams, beets, parsnips, turnips, rutabagas, carrots, yuca, kohlrabi, onions, garlic, celery root.
Fruit of Fragaria L: Strawberries
Fruits of Malus Mill: Apples
Fruits of Persea americana Mill: Avocado
Fruits of Pyrus L: Pear
Fruit of Vaccinium L: cranberry, blueberry, bilberry (whortleberry), lingonberry (cowberry), and huckleberry.
Fruit of Rubus L: Raspberries, blackberries, and dewberries

The change should mean there won’t be extra friction at the border when these fruit and vegetables are imported to the UK.

The UK government must seek “beneficial alignment” with the EU to overcome the hurdles hurting trade, says Tom Brufatto, director of policy at campaign group Best for Britain.

Following Aston University’s warning that UK exports to the EU are 17% lower than if Brexit had not happened, while imports are 23% lower, Brufatto says:

“This report reinforces the fact that the UK economy will continue to suffer as long as the unnecessary trade barriers contained in the TCA remain in place.”

“The new Government must make every effort to introduce beneficial regulatory alignment with our largest and closest market in the EU, to remove these barriers, reduce costs and unlock much needed economic growth.”

The findings of this morning’s report into UK-EU trade should put more pressure on the government to make Brexit work better.

Lead author of the report, Professor Jun Du of Aston University, says:

“The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports.

Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.”

Prime minister Keir Starmer has insisted that the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime.

But, Starmer has aso suggested better trading agreements than “the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson” could be achieved:

EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen has named Spain’s ecological transition minister Teresa Ribera as the bloc’s next antitrust commissioner.

This is a crucial position within the EU; Ribera will succeed Margrethe Vestager, who challenged Big Tech companies for their anti-competitive practices, culminating with court wins against Apple and Google last week.

The UK’s departure from the EU has introduced a series of challenges for the automobile industry, Aston Business School’s report flags.

That includes new tariffs on parts that fail to meet Europe’s rules of origin (RoO) requirements, customs delays, and higher administrative costs.

Today’s report says:

These issues are particularly problematic for the automotive sector, where just-in-time manufacturing processes are highly vulnerable to increased costs and delays, which can cause disruptions throughout the entire supply chain.

Here’s Peter Foster, the FT’s public policy editor, on today’s UK-EU trade report:

Today’s report into UK-EU trade shows how Britain’s pharmaceuticals industry has suffered from regulatory divergence issues since Brexit.

Prior to Brexit, UK pharmaceuticals were certified for EU sale under a unified regulatory framework. However, the UK’s withdrawal under the TCA has introduced “substantial trade and regulatory barriers that have deeply impacted the sector,” the report says.

The separation of medicine authorisation into distinct systems – one for the EU, and another for Great Britain and the UK, has led to additional requirements for applications, processes, and labelling.

The report explains:

For instance, while the mutual recognition of production certificates is agreed in the TCA [the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, or Brexit deal], the EU no longer recognises medicine batches tested in the UK as valid for sale within the single market, nor does it recognise the professionals overseeing these processes.

UK pharmaceutical firms now require separate certifications for both the UK and EU markets, resulting in increased costs and delays.

H&W boss: ‘Strong case’ to keep shipyards together

The future of shipmaker Harland & Wolff remains uncertain today, after the company announced on Monday it expects to fall into administration soon.

The company’s interim executive chairman Russell Downs has said there is a strong case for keeping the company’s four shipyards under a single owner.

He told the BBC’s Today programme that keeping the yards together was “sensible from an operating perspective”.

He added:

“Some yards may be owned by one owner with other yards owned by another, so we’ll just have to see where the process gets to.”

Shares in Intel are up 8% in after-hours trading after it secured a deal to make custom artificial intelligence chips for Amazon.

CEO Pat Gelsinger announced the deal – under which Intel will produce an “artificial intelligence fabric chip” for Amazon Web Services – in a memo to staff last night.

Gelsinger also said Intel was more than halfway to hitting its target of 15,000 job cuts by the end of this year, warning:

We still have difficult decisions to make and will notify impacted employees in the middle of October.

Stocks have opened higher across Europe, as investors anticipate a long-awaited cut to US interest rates tomorrow.

In London, the FTSE 100 share index has jumped by 61 points, or 0.75%, to 8338 points. Financials, energy and healthcare are the best-performing sectors.

France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.5% at the open, with Germany’s DAX up 0.3%.

Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief economist at global financial services firm Ebury, says:

“The upcoming decision by the Federal Reserve stands on a knife’s edge, with the market almost evenly split on whether the cutting cycle will start on a 25bp cut or a 50bp one.

Market expectations for a jumbo cut have risen relentlessly over the past few days on little news other than statements from former Fed officials like William Dudley and are now at above 60%.

Demand for big-ticket items remains weak, retailer Kingfisher has warned this morning – something which will not please the technology sector.

Kingfisher, which owns various DIY chains including B&Q and Castorama, has reported a 2.4% drop in like-for-like sales at its stores in the six months to the end of July.

Kingfisher says it has seen a:

Recovery in seasonal sales since early July and weak ‘big-ticket’ sales as expected.

Comparable sales dipped slightly in the UK and Ireland, but tumbled by over 7% in France – which Kingfisher says is “broadly in line with the market”.

It also reported a 2.3% rise in pre-tax profits, and lifted its estimate for adjusted pre-tax profits this year to £510m to £550m, from £490m-£550m before.

Shares in Kingfisher have jumped 6.5% at the start of trading.

Brexit deal hurting UK-EU goods trade, and it’s getting worse

Red tape on British businesses created by the Brexit trade deal has led to a sharp fall in UK-EU goods trade, a new report shows.

Academics at Aston Business School have analysed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade relations – and found that trade is down by over a quarter.

They say:

The findings reveal a sharp decline in both UK exports and imports with the EU, underscoring the enduring challenges posed by Brexit on the UK’s trade competitiveness.

Between 2021 and 2023, monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU, the report shows.

Photograph: Aston Business School

It also shows there has been a significant reduction in the range of goods the UK trades with the EU, due to the “profound and ongoing stifling” effects of the TCA.

This includes a “significant decline” in consumer goods exports to the EU and corresponding UK imports, which suggests the UK is dropping out of EU value chains.

However, the UK remains dependent on the EU for intermediate and capital goods.

And worryingly, these problems are expected to intensify.

The report says:

The study highlights that the negative impacts of the TCA have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years. This suggests that the transition in UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit is not merely a short-term disruption but reflects deeper structural changes likely to persist.

Agriculture and food products exports have been particularly impacted, the report shows.

Microsoft’s $60bn share buyback programme is the third-largest announced by any US company this year, Marketwatch reports.

The only companies to announce bigger share-repurchase authorizations so far this year are Apple ($100bn) and Alphabet ($70bn).

Chipmaker Nvidia and Facebook-owner Meta have both announced $50bn buybacks this year.

On the other side of the coin, though, Microsoft will still be one of the lowest-yielding stocks on the Dow Jones industrial average, even after raising its dividend by 10%.

Tech firms have traditionally paid lower dividends than average, focusing on using their cash to fuel growth and pay for acquisitions (although such large share buybacks shows they are strugging to pull this off).

Amazon mandates five days a week in office starting next year

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Amazon has announced it would require employees to return to the office five days a week, from the start of next year.

Andy Jassy, Amazon’s CEO, said in a note to employees.

“We’ve decided that we’re going to return to being in the office the way we were before the onset of COVID. When we look back over the last five years, we continue to believe that the advantages of being together in the office are significant.”

“If anything, the last 15 months we’ve been back in the office at least three days a week has strengthened our conviction about the benefits.”

He cited improved collaboration and connection between teams as reasons for the new requirement as well as the ability to “strengthen our culture”.

Introduction: Microsoft announces $60bn buyback; Apple hit by iPhone demand worries