Bitcoin has gone through four major cycles since its inception in 2009. Each cycle consists of a bull market, where the price rises exponentially, followed by a bear market, where the price corrects significantly. The duration and magnitude of each cycle vary, but they tend to follow a pattern of increasing length and decreasing volatility.
I will explain why I believe that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $137,000 in the next cycle. I will use historical data, technical analysis and fundamental factors to support my thesis.
The first cycle lasted from 2009 to 2011 and saw Bitcoin rise from $0.01 to $31.91, a 319,000% increase. The second cycle lasted from 2011 to 2013 and saw Bitcoin rise from $2.22 to $1,163.00, a 52,300% increase. The third cycle lasted from 2013 to 2017 and saw Bitcoin rise from $65.53 to $19,891.00, a 30,300% increase. The fourth cycle lasted from 2017 to 2021 and saw Bitcoin rise from $1,017.03 to $69,000.00, a 6,700% increase.
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Based on these data, we can observe that each cycle peak is roughly 10 times higher than the previous one, and that each cycle duration is roughly four times longer than the previous one. If we extrapolate this pattern to the next cycle, we can estimate that the peak will be around $690,000 and the duration will be around 16 years.
However, this is a very simplistic and optimistic projection that does not account for the diminishing returns and the increasing challenges that Bitcoin faces as it grows. Therefore, I will use a more conservative and realistic approach to estimate the next cycle top.
Technical analysis is the study of price patterns and trends using various tools and indicators. One of the most popular and reliable tools is the logarithmic regression curve, which plots the price of Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale and fits a curve that best represents its long-term growth trajectory.
The logarithmic regression curve has accurately predicted the previous cycle tops and bottoms with remarkable precision. For example, it predicted the 2013 peak at $1,163, the 2015 bottom at $152, the 2017 peak at $19,891 and the 2019 bottom at $3,122.
Using this tool, we can project the next cycle top by extending the curve to the future and finding the point where it intersects with the price. According to this method, the next cycle top will be around $137,000 and will occur around mid-2024.
This projection is consistent with the historical pattern of decreasing returns and increasing duration of each cycle. It also aligns with other technical indicators such as the stock-to-flow model, which measures the scarcity of Bitcoin by comparing its annual production to its existing supply.
Fundamental factors are the external forces that affect the supply and demand of Bitcoin. They include economic events, regulatory developments, technological innovations and social trends. These factors can have a positive or negative impact on the price of Bitcoin depending on how they influence its adoption, innovation and competition.
Some of the fundamental factors that could drive Bitcoin to $137,000 in the next cycle are:
The adoption of Bitcoin as a legal tender by El Salvador and other countries that face economic instability, hyperinflation or currency devaluation. The integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial platforms such as PayPal, Square, Visa and Mastercard that enable millions of users to buy, sell and spend Bitcoin easily and securely. The innovation of Bitcoin technologies such as Taproot, Lightning Network and Schnorr Signatures that improve its scalability, privacy and efficiency.
The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) that allow institutional investors to access Bitcoin exposure without having to deal with custody or regulatory issues. The growth of Bitcoin communities and culture that foster education, awareness and advocacy for Bitcoin as a global digital currency.
In a recent interview, Sam Altman, the founder of ChatGPT, a leading conversational AI platform, shared his views on Bitcoin and its role in the future of humanity. He said, “Bitcoin is a super logical and important step on the technology tree” of humanity, meaning that it is a natural and inevitable outcome of the evolution of technology and society.
Altman explained that Bitcoin is not just a digital currency, but a decentralized network that enables trustless transactions, censorship resistance, and global inclusion. He said that Bitcoin is aligned with the core values of ChatGPT, which are to empower people with natural and engaging communication tools that can enhance their creativity, productivity, and well-being.
He also said that Bitcoin is a catalyst for innovation and social change, as it challenges the status quo and creates new possibilities for economic freedom, financial inclusion, and human rights. He said that ChatGPT is proud to support the Bitcoin community and to contribute to its development and adoption.
Altman concluded by saying that Bitcoin is not only a super logical and important step on the technology tree of humanity, but also a super exciting and inspiring one. He said that he is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and its impact on the world.
I believe that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $137,000 in the next cycle based on historical data, technical analysis and fundamental factors. This is not a guarantee or a prediction but rather an educated guess based on my own research and analysis. I encourage you to do your own due diligence before investing in Bitcoin or any other asset class.
Bitcoin maintains support level above $27,000 amid BlackRock Launching Tokenized ETF
The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a lot of volatility in the past few weeks, with Bitcoin dropping below $30,000 several times. However, the leading digital asset has managed to hold above a crucial support level of $27,000, thanks to the buying pressure from long-term holders.
According to data from Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC has increased by 164 since the start of the year, indicating that large investors are accumulating more coins despite the price fluctuations. These long-term holders, also known as “whales”, are considered to have a strong influence on the market sentiment and direction.
Moreover, the amount of Bitcoin held by entities with a low spending history, or “illiquid supply”, has also risen to a new all-time high of 14.5 million BTC, representing 78% of the circulating supply. This means that more Bitcoin is being held for longer periods, reducing the selling pressure and increasing the scarcity of the asset.
These bullish signals suggest that Bitcoin has a strong support base above $27,000, and that long-term holders are confident in its future potential. As long as this level holds, Bitcoin could resume its upward trend and challenge its previous highs of $42,000 and beyond.
Tokenized ETF BlackRock iShares Bond ETF UCITS launched on the Base Network
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has launched a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks a basket of bond indices on the Base Network, a decentralized protocol for tokenizing financial assets. The ETF, called iShares Bond ETF UCITS, is the first of its kind to offer exposure to fixed income markets on a blockchain platform.
The iShares Bond ETF UCITS aims to replicate the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, which covers more than 24,000 bonds from 70 countries and 30 currencies. The index includes government, corporate, and securitized bonds with varying maturities and credit ratings. The ETF has a total expense ratio of 0.1% and is denominated in US dollars.
The Base Network is a protocol that allows anyone to create and trade tokenized versions of any financial asset, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies. The protocol uses smart contracts to ensure that the tokens are backed by real-world assets and can be redeemed at any time. The Base Network also enables interoperability between different blockchains, allowing users to access a wide range of markets and liquidity pools.
By launching the iShares Bond ETF UCITS on the Base Network, BlackRock aims to provide investors with a low-cost, transparent, and efficient way to access global bond markets. The ETF also offers several advantages over traditional bond funds, such as:
Faster settlement: The ETF tokens can be transferred and settled within minutes on the blockchain, compared to days or weeks for conventional bond trades.
Lower barriers: The ETF tokens can be bought and sold in fractional amounts, allowing investors to participate in bond markets with smaller capital requirements.
Greater accessibility: The ETF tokens can be traded 24/7 on any compatible blockchain platform, expanding the reach and availability of bond markets.
Enhanced security: The ETF tokens are secured by cryptography and distributed ledger technology, reducing the risk of fraud, theft, or manipulation.
The iShares Bond ETF UCITS is the latest example of how BlackRock is embracing innovation and technology to offer better solutions for its clients. The asset manager has been exploring the potential of blockchain and digital assets for several years and has recently expressed interest in launching more crypto-related products in the future. With the iShares Bond ETF UCITS, BlackRock is demonstrating its leadership and vision in the rapidly evolving field of tokenized finance.
