Biggest drop in UK manufacturing confidence since March 2020; eurozone inflation hits three-year low – business live

The oil price is falling today, which could keep European inflation pegged lower.

Brent crude has dropped by 1.75% so far today to $70.44 per barrel, the lowest in almost three weeks, despite rising tensions in the Middle East today.

Oil appears to be being pulled lower by the prospect of increased supplies, with the Opec+ group set to increase output in December.

Fears that slowing economic growth would hit demand for energy have also pushed the oil price lower.

This has helped oil traders overlook the news that Israel has launched a ground offensive against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon.

Joshua Mahony, analyst at Scope Markets, says:

With OPEC reconvening once again this week, there is a fear that we are set for a fresh reminder of the worsening supply situation in the event that the group raise production in December as planned.

Recent rumours have been circulating that Saudi Arabia want to reestablish their position by taking back market share from the US, and thus markets will be watching closely for any indication of future output. For markets, the continued weakness seen in energy markets does help depress inflation expectations, although traders will also be wary of the reflection this has on global economic activity.

Inflation across the eurozone has fallen below the official 2% target for the first time in three years, which may prompt further cuts to eurozone interest rates later this month.

Statistics body Eurostat estimates that annual inflation across the euro area was 1.8% in September 2024, down from 2.2% in August.

That’s the lowest reading for eurozone inflation since spring 2021, and the first time since June 2021 that CPI inflation has been below the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Price rises eased thanks to a drop in energy costs. Energy inflation was -6% in the year to September (meaning costs were lower than a year ago).

Services inflation slowed to 4% from 4.1% in August, while food, alcohol & tobacco inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.3%. Goods price inflation was unchanged at 0.4%.

Natasha May, global market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says today’s data “paves the way” for another ECB rate cut this month.

While a decline in headline inflation was widely expected, the fall was accompanied by early signs of easing price pressures in services. Alongside recently weaker activity data – which implies weaker longer-term inflation – this makes the case for speedier policy normalisation.

“More broadly, the eurozone rebound anticipated in early 2024 has turned out to be quite tepid. Consumers were expected to gain confidence from real income gains, driving a pick-up in spending. But confidence remains somewhat depressed and the manufacturing sector still looks very weak, raising the risk of inflation undershooting the ECB’s 2% target in the medium term. Today’s release should give the ECB more confidence that shorter-term price pressures are normalising, and therefore that interest rates should be normalised faster too.”

The ECB has cut interest rates twice this year, in June and September; it’s next monetary policy meeting is 17 October.

Newsflash: Worries about this month’s budget, and the Middle East crisis, have hit confidence across UK manufacturing last month.

Data provider S&P Global has reported that business confidence among factory bosses fell to a nine-month low last month, and at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the UK four and a half years ago.

They say that the autumn budget led to a “wait-and-see approach” to decision making, with production and new business slowing last month.

[That fits with this morning’s warning from the Institute of Directors that bosses are gloomier, following the warnings that Rachel Reeves’s first budget will be tough].

Although output and new order growth eased, S&P’s UK manufacturing PMI has remained in growth territory at 51.5, down from August’s 26-month high of 52.5.

That suggests there was a “solid expansion” in the UK manufacturing sector last month.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:

“The UK manufacturing sector is still expanding at a solid, albeit slightly slower, pace. Output rose for the fifth successive month in September, underpinned by a resilient domestic market.

However, manufacturers have become more nervous about the outlook, suggesting that the current spell of impressive growth is fading, with business optimism about the year-ahead slumping to a nine-month low.

The extent of the drop in confidence was striking, beaten only by that seen in March 2020 prior to COVID lockdowns. Uncertainty about the direction of government policy ahead of the coming Autumn Budget was a clear cause of the loss of confidence, especially given recent gloomy messaging, though firms are also worried about wider global geopolitical issues and economic growth risks.

The PMI survey has also showed that input cost inflation accelerated to a 20-month high last month, which led manufacturers to further push up their selling prices.

Dobson explains:

Freight cost rises are a big factor underlying the resurgence in the price measures, as supply chains continue to feel the strain of the Red Sea crisis and global conflicts.”

Mulberry rejects £83m takeover bid from Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group

Julia Kollewe

More takeover drama, this time in the UK, where handbag maker Mulberry has rejected an £83m takeover proposal from Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group.

Mulberry has slapped down Ashley’s offer, insisting instead that it would push on with a planned fundraising to support a turnaround.

The luxury brand said it had considered the approach carefully and consulted its 56.1% majority shareholder Challice, controlled by the Singaporean entrepreneur Christina Ong, who had “no interest” in pursuing the possible offer.

Frasers, which owns Sports Direct, Evans Cycles, the House of Fraser department stores and multiple other retail brands from Slazenger to Jack Wills, has a 36.8% stake in Mulberry. On Monday, it said it was making an offer for the rest of the company worth 130p a share, pitting itself against its rival large shareholder.

The Mulberry board said on Tuesday it believed the recent appointment of Andrea Baldo as chief executive, along with the emergency £10.75m share placing announced late on Friday, “provides the company with a solid platform to execute a turnaround”.

“In light of this, the board has concluded that the possible offer does not recognise the company’s substantial future potential value. In addition, the board has been informed that Challice is supportive of the company’s strategy.”

Frasers has been given a “put up or shut up” deadline of 5pm on 28 October to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Mulberry, or walk away.

Factory production across the eurozone has shrunk at the fastest pace so far this year, according to the latest poll of purchasing managers.

Production, new orders, employment and procurement activity all fell at a faster rate last month, data firm S&P Global had reported.

This pulled its eurozone manufacturing PMI index down to 45.0 in September, from August’s 45.8, but slightly higher than the ‘flash’ reading last week.

That’s a nine-month low, and further below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

The eurozone was dragged down by its two largest members; Germany recorded the worst decline in factory conditions for 12 months, while France’s manufacturing also contracted.

Spain, though, recorded its fastest growth in four months.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, says:

“It is a real shame that Spain is only the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone.

While handling the global manufacturing downturn surprisingly well, Spain just does not have enough weight to lift the rest of the eurozone with it. The worsening industrial slump in Germany, for example, is too big for Spain’s momentum in September to make much of a difference.

According to our nowcast model, eurozone industrial production will likely drop by around 1% in the third quarter compared to the last one. With incoming orders plummeting fast, we can expect another dip in production by year-end.

UK business leaders are growing more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy, the Institute of Directors (IoD) has warned.

The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, released this morning, has fallen to -38 points for September, down from -12 in August.

That’s the lowest reading since December 2022, when the UK economy was recovering from the shock of the mini-budget.

Business leader confidence in their own organisations also fell from to +23 in August to +15 in September, having already dropped from +36 in July.

Bosses are reining in their investment plans, the IoD reports, and trimming their recruitment plans.

Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said:

“Business confidence and investment expectations both took a further and larger dive in September. IoD members cite ongoing concerns over likely tax increases, the cost of workers’ rights, international competitiveness, broader cost pressures and the general outlook for UK economic growth.

“There are a number of policy announcements forthcoming which could help foster a more supportive environment for growth and investment, and underpin an improvement in business confidence. In the next few weeks we expect to see more detail on industrial strategy, the business tax roadmap and a likely update to the fiscal rules to better recognise the contribution of public sector investment to the UK’s asset base. These all have the potential to create a more steady environment for business decision-makers in the UK.”

The IoD’s survey follows similar recent polls which have shown a drop in both consumer and business confidence, following warnings that the budget later this month will include tax rises.

Over in the US, dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast have begun a strike that will disrupt about half the country’s ocean shipping.

The port workers’ first large-scale stoppage in nearly 50 years began after negotiations for a new work contract broke down over the issue of wages.

The strike blocks everything from food to automobile shipments across dozens of ports from Maine to Texas, in a disruption analysts warned will cost the economy billions of dollars a day, threaten jobs, and stoke inflation.

Workers began picketing at the port of Philadelphia shortly after midnight, the Associated Press reported, walking in a circle at a rail crossing outside the port and chanting, “No work without a fair contract.”

The port of Virginia also confirmed the work stoppage.

More here.

Bakery chain Greggs has revealed that its costs are rising more slowly than it expected.

In a trading update today, Greggs says that it now expects the overall level of cost inflation for 2024 to be towards the lower end of the 4-5% range which it had previously expected.

Greggs adds that:

Whilst acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty, the Board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations.

Greggs has reported that total sales rose by 10.6% in the last quarter, to the end of September, a slowdown on the 12.7% sales growth during 2024 so far.

Greggs also reports that its autumn menu is now available, including an All-Day Breakfast Baguette and Mexican Bean & Spicy Cheese Flatbread.

It adds:

We’ve also introduced a Pumpkin Spice Doughnut to our sweet range, complementing the return of our seasonal drinks range including the Pumpkin Spice Latte and Salted Caramel Latte which are both also available as part of our over ice range.

There is some relief for households, though – shop prices are falling at the fastest rate in three years.

Despite an increase in food inflation, overall prices in the shops fell by 0.6% in the year to September, twice as fast as the 0.3% deflation recorded in August, according to the British Retail Consortium.

Non-food prices were 2.1% cheaper than a year ago, while food inflation rose to 2.3% in September, up from 2.0% in August.

Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the BRC, says:

“September was a good month for bargain hunters as big discounts and fierce competition pushed shop prices further into deflation. Shop Price inflation is now at its lowest level in over three years, with monthly prices dropping in seven of the last nine months.

This was driven by non-food, with Furniture and Clothing showing the biggest drops in inflation as retailers tried to entice shoppers back. Food inflation edged up slightly as poor harvests in key producing regions led to higher prices for cooking oils and sugary products.

“Easing price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change, and government-imposed regulatory costs could all reverse this trend

Deflation means prices are lower than they were a year ago. But, of course, while the rate of price changes is negative, the level of prices is still much higher than before the surge of inflation began in 2021.

Today’s energy price cap rise comes as the company responsible for keeping Great Britain’s lights on has returned to public ownership for the first time in over thirty years as it prepares to make the electricity system 95% carbon-free by 2030.

Ownership of the electricity system operator has transferred from National Grid to the government to form a new National Energy System Operator (Neso) from today.

The new publicly owned organisation, which will be responsible for Great Britain’s electricity and gas systems, is expected to map a route towards the government’s green energy goals. The government hopes that by bringing together gas and electricity under one publicly owned company, the new system operator can adopt a more strategic approach to achieving a clean power system by 2030.

Neso’s chief executive, Fintan Slye, told the Observer that its roadmap would stop short of the Labour party’s pre-election pledge to create a “zero carbon electricity system” by 2030 in favour of a clean power target which is 95% free of carbon emissions.

He said:

“That means that by 2030 95% of the generation in Great Britain over the period of a year will be from clean power sources. And that means that the remaining 5% will come from unabated gas.”.

Slye said the “hugely ambitious” target to create a clean power system by 2030 would require Britain “to do everything that we can do quicker – but also very, very differently as well”. Its roadmap towards 2030 is expected to include advice on reforming the regulation around planning and consenting and speeding up the grid connections process.

Neso is also expected to work alongside GB Energy, a public company set up by the Labour government to invest in low-carbon energy, to help connect new generation projects with the electricity grid.

The decision to remove the ESO from National Grid’s ownership was made under the previous Conservative government because of concerns over a conflict of interest relating to the operator’s role providing strategic advice to government officials.

Here’s our profile of Slye, from last weekend’s Observer:

The boss of Ovo Energy has called for sweeping changes to the UK’s energy bills system so they are subsidised for poorer households, as consumers face another rise in fuel costs this winter.

Chief executive David Buttress told the PA news agency the Government should introduce a social tariff, something which is already used in the telecoms industry to help people who receive benefits like Universal Credit pay their broadband bills.

The measure, which campaign groups have proposed for several years, would likely take the form of a targeted discount energy deal for poorer customers, and could be below the price of the cheapest available standard energy tariff.

Buttress said:

“A social tariff would allow us to address the cost of energy for the poorest in our communities in a way that means, collectively, we could give them the protection they need to get through the winter months.”

The Resolution Foundation is warning today that 7.7 million households in England – including the majority of families with children – are at risk of “fuel stress” this winter.

Their analysis of government data found that 37% of all households faced “fuel stress”, defined as families needing to spend more than 10% of their income on heating their homes excluding housing costs.

It found that 77% of single-parent households are likely to experience “fuel stress” this winter, highlighting the impact of today’s increase in the energy price cap.

Alex Clegg, economist at the Resolution Foundation, says this shows how poorly targeted Winter Fuel Payments are, and why alternative support will be needed this winter.

Clegg adds:

“Couples with children are more than twice as likely to experience fuel stress as pensioner households, so any new support should not be limited to pensioners. Reforming and expanding Cold Weather Payments offers a viable quick-fix solution to help keep households warm when the mercury drops this winter.

“Looking beyond this winter, the Government should prioritise developing a social tariff and investing in energy efficiency for our homes. This would help to ensure that vulnerable families are insulated from future energy shocks, whatever their age or circumstances.”

More here:

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

It’s October, which means the nights are drawing in, the temperature is dropping, and arguments can begin about when to turn the heating on.

But flicking the boiler on has just become more expensive, adding to the burden on millions of households as winter approaches.

Average energy bills across Great Britain have just risen by £149 a year today, as the latest energy price cap kicks in.

The cap, set each quarter by regulator Ofgem based on the wholesale price of energy, has just risen by 10% to £1,717 a year for an average dual-fuel household in Great Britain paying by direct debit.

That’s an increase of almost £150 per year compared with the cap in April-June, based on the energy use for a typical household.

And while the cap is lower than the £2,500 at which the last government froze maximum bills at the height of the energy crisis, it’s still sharply higher than in autumn 2021, when average bills were capped at £1,277 a year.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation is warning today that poorer families are already struggling to cope.

JRF research has found that, back in May, 2.9 million low-income households had been unable to keep their home warm in the previous six months, while 4.3 million had fallen behind with their household bills.

Katie Schmuecker, principal policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, says:

“Today’s energy price cap rise looms over families who are forced to heat their homes less than they should. It is more than three years since energy prices started to rise, creating an unacceptable level of prolonged hardship for millions of families who are still paying well above what they were before the cost-of-living crisis started. This looks like another winter of sleeping in a coat, not showering, and only cooking once a week, to try to keep the bills down.

“Families who already can’t pay their energy bills can no longer count on cost-of-living payments to provide any relief. We need to see an urgent plan for hardship at the upcoming Budget to stop those with the least going hungry and cold this winter.”

Yesterday, a seperate survey warned that almost half of British adults will ration their energy use this winter.

The agenda

• 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI report for September

• 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI report for September

• 10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for September

• 2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI report for September