The surge of official visits is over, another recruiting dead period is upon us and conference media days are on deck. Good time for a new edition of the Big 12 mailbag.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
What do you see as the hierarchy of the new Big 12 starting in 2024? With other conferences, there are obvious tiers, but one could easily argue the new Big 12 will be wide open with Oklahoma and Texas leaving. Are any schools poised to be at the top for the foreseeable future? — Matthew M.
Several schools could make a case.
Kansas State seems to have something going under Chris Klieman after winning the Big 12 last year and winning at least eight games in three of his first four seasons. The Wildcats are moving in the right direction.
Oklahoma State has stability in its favor, with Mike Gundy being the league’s longest-tenured head coach. The Cowboys played for the conference title two years ago and have won double-digit games seven times since 2010, but only once in the last five years. There’s an institutional commitment there, but Gundy is who he is. This will be a big year for that program.
TCU has a chance. The Horned Frogs did something no other continuing Big 12 school has done — made the College Football Playoff. It will be difficult to repeat that success. But there’s a foundation there, with good recruiting and transfer portal usage, a great location, a school and donors willing to spend and a history of winning in this century under Sonny Dykes’ predecessor, Gary Patterson.
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Baylor should be in the conversation, with three Big 12 titles in the last decade. The Bears are well-resourced and have an ideal recruiting footprint. But this will be a big year for Dave Aranda. How things go will chart the course for the near future.
Texas Tech has never won a Big 12 title, but it’s hard not to like where the Red Raiders are headed under Joey McGuire. He has tremendous institutional support, from a good NIL program to ongoing facility renovations. They’re recruiting their tails off right now, too.
I don’t think it will be just one school that stands out and dominates the way Oklahoma did. But it seems to me the top two or three programs in the league in the next few years will come from that pool of schools. — Khan Jr.
It doesn’t always translate to on-field success, as the “Horns Down” brigade will be quick to point out, but power conferences have historically had alpha dogs. Maybe a new Big 12 that could be the most competitive top to bottom will stay that way for a while, which would be a distinct and entertaining development in a sport short on parity. I think it’s more likely the on-field results of the next decade will determine who fills those vacancies at the top.
Projecting which one or two schools that might be? Honestly, I have no clue. Eighteen months ago, the most reasonable answer would have been Oklahoma State, Baylor or even incoming Cincinnati, with the Bearcats fresh off a CFP berth. A year later, TCU emerged out of nowhere. Best guess long-term? I’d go with Baylor, Kansas State or Oklahoma State, but you could easily argue for Texas Tech, TCU or any of the newcomers. I can’t say I have a good feel for it, but it should be fun to watch. — Williams
Who will be in the conference championship game in December? — Josh L.
I’m taking Kansas State and Texas. I love how many players the Wildcats return, especially on offense: eight starters, including the entire offensive line and quarterback Will Howard. Texas’ roster is in great shape, too. The Longhorns also return their entire O-line, they stocked up at receiver and Quinn Ewers should be better. Both teams were among the top three in the league in scoring defense last year, too, with defensive staff and scheme stability at both schools. — Khan Jr.
The Sooners will avenge a down season to make one last run atop the regular-season standings, only for Kansas State to play spoiler for the second year in a row and upset Oklahoma in the title game. — Williams
How does a TV contract that will reportedly distribute $31.7 million annually per program get bumped to the annual projected revenue number of $50 million by Big 12 mathematicians? — Robert E.
It’s salesmanship, like when men list their height in online dating profiles.
In actuality, the $31.7 million per school is the projected TV revenue, while the $50 million per school is the total conference distribution, which includes money from conference championship games, bowl and College Football Playoff revenues, NCAA Tournament credits (a significant source in the Big 12) and other league-wide revenue streams, of which commissioner Brett Yormark seems to have no shortage of ideas.
If you project all of those, you can reasonably get in that $50-million-per-school range. (Heartland College Sports wrote a helpful article on this last October.) Multiple sources familiar with the league’s revenue projections told The Athletic they expect schools to at least be in the upper $40 million range once the new TV deal kicks in. — Williams
A lot of nice commitments lately for the Jayhawks. I know it means very little this early in the cycle, but what’s behind their big gets and how promising is their recruiting future? Lance Leipold and his staff seem to be nailing it. — Sam O.
Kansas is No. 41 in the national rankings for the 2024 class at the time this went to publication, which would be the program’s highest-rated class in a decade. As Sam O. noted, it’s still early, but right now it represents a significant improvement from the 60s, where the Jayhawks have ranked in recent seasons.
Leipold deserves a ton of credit. He’s familiar with the region and has a strong eye for talent. He elevated the likes of quarterback Jalon Daniels and cornerback Cobee Bryant and plucked quality contributors via the transfer portal such as Mike Novitsky (Buffalo), Dominick Puni (Central Michigan) and Lonnie Phelps (Miami Ohio). Combined with Kansas’ general improvement, that type of development resonates with prospects.
Defensive backs coach Jordan Peterson, who I wrote about briefly this month, deserves a shout-out as well. A holdover from Les Miles’ staff, Peterson has been one of the best recruiters in the country this cycle, helping land commitments from four-star cornerback Austin Alexander, who our Grace Raynor recently spoke with, along with three-star corners Jalen Todd and Aundre Gibson, three of the top seven-ranked commits in KU’s 2024 class. — Williams
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Joey McGuire and his staff are doing a hell of a job in recruiting. Understanding that Texas Tech is not going to challenge for the No. 1 spot year after year, is it realistic for Tech to perennially be among the top 20-25 with an occasional top-10 recruiting class? — Robert P.
After seeing what Tech did in the 2023 class and accounting for where the Red Raiders are in 2024 (ranked 22nd by 247Sports as of Sunday and seemingly the favorite for five-star Micah Hudson), I’m convinced that as long as McGuire is there, Texas Tech can recruit at a top 25-30 level consistently. I’m a believer in the Red Raiders’ measurable-heavy recruiting strategy after seeing that blueprint work under Matt Rhule at Baylor.
Reaching the top 10 in recruiting rankings is hard. Tech’s highest-ranked class in the modern era is 19th in 2011. TCU’s is 20th, last year. Baylor’s is 25th. And TCU and Baylor are teams that have won the Big 12.
I could see Tech flirting with the top 15, especially this year if they close on Hudson. Per 247Sports’ class calculator, if Hudson committed, Texas Tech’s class would rank 13th today. If Tech can land more blue-chippers in the coming years, then perhaps it could more consistently be in the top 20. — Khan Jr.
If you’re West Virginia and you end up looking for a new head coach during or after the upcoming season, do you go after a Group of 5 head coach or a hot coordinator? The Mountaineers tried the G5 route with Neal Brown and that hasn’t worked out, and the hot OC was a mixed bag before Dana Holgorsen went back to Houston. Or do you make a run at an ace recruiter with strong regional ties (the name Brian Hartline immediately comes to mind)? — Joe S.
History has taught us that it’s all about finding the right coach and making the right hire, regardless of background; there are plenty of successes and failures from each bucket. If Brown’s hot seat doesn’t cool down, I think West Virginia would be best served going after a coach with a developmental track record, whether that’s an established P5 assistant or a G5 head coach.
Look, I love Morgantown, but consistently recruiting top-level talent there will always pose challenges. The Mountaineers’ best shot at sustainable success is to find a coach who can identify those undervalued, overlooked prospects within their talent-rich footprint — Pennsylvania and Ohio, in particular — develop them, maybe find a few Steve Slatons in the process, and build it from the ground up. Use the transfer portal in the same manner, as opposed to a yearly revolving door. Create some stability. Outside of Cincinnati, no one else in the conference is better equipped to recruit that region than West Virginia.
I realize it hasn’t exactly worked with Brown at the helm thus far, but that shouldn’t be an indictment on all G5 head coaches moving forward. In fact, some big school is going to poach Jon Sumrall before too long. WVU could probably do a lot worse than going back to the Troy well once again. — Williams
What does Klieman’s extension say about the future of college sports with the SEC and Big Ten so far ahead of the others in terms of revenue? While Kansas State made a much-deserved commitment to Klieman, his extension is worth half a million less than what Eli Drinkwitz receives with a 17-19 record at Mizzou and $3.5 million less than Josh Heupel’s extension after two seasons at Tennessee. Is it crazy to think Minnesota could double Jerome Tang’s salary and convince him to be the Gophers’ head coach? — Dan K.
Dan’s right. The SEC and Big Ten schools, in most cases, have more money and more resources, a gap that will only get wider. If a true blueblood wants to come for Klieman or Tang, the Wildcats probably have little to no shot of hanging on to them. Same for many of their Big 12, ACC and Pac-12 brethren.
But is Minnesota a better job than Kansas State, in football or basketball? Recent history doesn’t back that up. What about Missouri, Rutgers, Vanderbilt or Northwestern? I realize so many of these coaches wind up chasing the cash with enough hubris to think they can turn around the next rudderless yet well-funded program. But at some point, job security and reasonable paths to success should be enough to counter their Scrooge McDuck dollar-sign eyeballs. Because having more money to offer bigger coaching contracts also means having more money to pay bigger coaching buyouts.
Kansas State — in the future Big 12, with the 12-team football Playoff — has a better chance at consistent success than Minnesota. Similar arguments can be made against most of the second- and third-tier Big Ten and SEC schools, who are likely to find themselves flush with cash but often clawing their way to bowl eligibility. (Basketball is a different beast but many of the same points apply, and the Big 12 is also the premier league in that sport.)
Maybe I’m naive. I’m not suggesting Klieman would reflexively turn down Auburn or Penn State, let alone Alabama or Michigan. But I’d like to think the chance to mold a program while winning steadily, being adored locally and still earning millions of dollars can outweigh a few extra million and far greater uncertainty. — Williams
What week in the season will the “Texas is back!” discourse be put to rest? — Carson M.
Is it legally required that every Big 12 or “Ask the Texpert” mailbag includes a “Texas is back!” question?
Here’s when Texas will be “back”: when they’re a perennial top-10 team and contending for national championships. That’s what they did in the Mack Brown era.
A good first step: win 10 games and win the Big 12 this year. They haven’t done the former since 2018 and haven’t done the latter since 2009. After that gets accomplished, then we can resume the “back or not back” discourse. I do like their current trajectory though and this is a huge year for the Longhorns. — Khan Jr.
“Texas is back!” is a flat circle. It goes dormant like a bear in winter, but it will never truly be put to rest. — Williams
(Top photo: Troy Taormina / USA Today)
