Onlookers take photos of UK aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales as it leaves Portsmouth, England, for an autumn deployment (UK MoD)
DSEI 2023 — The biennial Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) has long been a prominent fixture of the UK military trade calendar, gathering senior British political and military officials, alongside a host of US and international delegates, and of course a legion of defense contracting firms.
But this year the event will play out amid the conflict in Ukraine, Europe’s worst security crisis since the Second World War. European leaders also face the prospect of having to figure out how to sustain military aid to Kyiv long-term, potentially without the US covering the lion’s share of supplies as debate in Congress over cutting funding could intensify as the next presidential election draws near.
For the UK specifically, London finds itself with a new defense secretary, an updated command paper of military priorities and facing decisions over balancing strategic ambitions abroad, not least striking a balance between power projection in the Asia-Pacific without losing sight of Russia’s menace closer to home.
The headline-making multinational Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) and AUKUS programs are sure to dominate proceedings too, but with the decision of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to only increase defense spending to 2.5 percent GDP as a long term target, uncertainty over funding for next generation aviation and maritime projects persists.
Here’s what else we’re keeping our eyes on as DSEI kicks into gear:
New Boss, Same As The Old Boss?
There will be plenty of focus on a Thursday speech from Grant Shapps, UK defense secretary, after his surprise appointment last month. Any surprise announcements would seem unlikely so early in post, but the opportunity to make a good first impression with industry could prove otherwise.
Shapps is something of an unknown quantity, lacking any military experience, and has the difficult task of taking on the post with funding at a premium, with lawmakers also calling for a “broken” procurement system to be fixed urgently.
More Money, More Artillery
New investment of £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) to replenish national stockpiles supplied to Ukraine was the leading item from the UK’s command paper published in July, and with Europe on a mission to ramp up production of 155mm ammunition, expect army acquisitions and land warfare strategy to be in the spotlight.
Last week the European Defence Agency signed the first set of procurement contacts to get the firepower on a “fast track,” on top of the UK previously announcing plans with BAE Systems to ramp up 155mm ammunition under a Next Generation Munitions Solution (NGMS) agreement in July. Expending an estimated 7,700 rounds per day, Ukraine continues to heavily rely on these shells.
GCAP Changes Afoot?
As reports surface about Saudi Arabia requesting to join GCAP, news could come on whether the application is soon to be approved by the UK, Italy and Japan and, if so, what contribution it will make to the sixth generation fighter project.
A panel on Wednesday featuring British military officials, as well as key industry partners, could clarify the picture on the sometimes blurry future project.
RELATED: Despite Saudi statement, KSA not joining UK-led FCAS program — at least not yet
AUKUS Pillar 2
Even though it’s not formally a subject on the agenda for any panel, the massive trilateral security arrangement known as AUKUS is sure to be on the minds of officials and industry players here, especially as more attention has been drawn to the agreement’s future-tech-heavy Pillar 2.
A senior US official hinted at a major announcement coming from the Biden White House sometime in the fall, but DSEI could play host to new clues about Pillar 2, or about how the international partners are working through export control issues for nuclear-powered submarine tech.
