No one can accuse Andrew Bailey of hiding behind architect Sir John Soane’s formidable curtain wall which surrounds the Bank of England.
The Governor escaped from more formal settings for repartee on CBBC’s flagship Newsround programme with youthful presenter Ricky Boleto.
The encounter between a tieless Bailey and the representative of the nation’s younger people was frank, with the Governor acknowledging that evidence is emerging – fuel prices are the most obvious example – that retailers are overcharging.
Until now the Bank has been reluctant to buy into the ‘greedflation’ narrative.
It is not just on the forecourts that the consumer is being taken for a ride.
Outlook: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (pictured) believes inflation will fall sharply down to 2% through next year
The tumultuous 27.4 per cent rise in milk, cheese and egg prices over the past 12 months, in a country overflowing with dairy produce, is among the mysteries of the universe.
Banks are part of the swindle. Being called to the headmaster’s office at the Financial Conduct Authority to explain why savers, who outnumber mortgage customers, are starved of proper returns isn’t a good look.
After a ton of bad inflation developments, the markets are predicting that the Bank’s base rate, currently at 5 per cent, could hit 6.5 per cent by next year.
The yield on UK bonds is now two full percentage points above that of its German counterparts.
Oxford Economics argues that second-round inflation effects have gained grip and become persistent as higher pay growth lifts incomes, giving licence to firms to bid up prices. Does Bailey agree with that?
CBBC watchers were assured that he expects ‘quite a marked fall in inflation all the way down to 2 per cent’ through next year.
If that is the case, the futures and gilts market could well be engaged in mispricing interest rates. It wouldn’t be the first time.
Capital market analysts too easily disregard real-time numbers.
The latest economic activity data from the Office for National Statistics shows encouraging trends.
The system price of electricity fell 34 per cent in the week to July 2 and is down 68 per cent from a year ago. Next time a whingeing business person pops up on Radio 4 to moan about energy prices, please note.
Job adverts are also trending down – witness results from Robert Walters which show some of the upward pressure on wages, arising from labour shortages, might soon start to disappear.
Consumer resilience seems to be immune to surging home loan bills and Bank efforts to curb ebullience.
Airports are busier than ever, debit and credit card spending is up and this week’s services purchasing managers’ index showed spending is robust.
The Bank of England’s battle against exuberance is a hard slog but the interest rate gloom is overcooked.
New money
The greedier the high street banks become the better it is for upstart fintech rivals.
Wise has demonstrated how much cheaper it is to make overseas transfers outside the more cumbersome and pricey Chaps and Swift systems.
Newcomer CAB Payments, which specialises in money transfers to emerging markets, has raised £300million in a London listing, which values it at £851million.
Worldpay, another British-created fintech, once part of Royal Bank of Scotland, is on the move again.
The payments pioneer, which provides the tech behind plastic cards, is being sold by US owners Fidelity National Information Services to Chicago private equity firm GTCR for £14.6billion, a huge discount on what Fidelity National paid.
The revolving ownership since 2017 is testimony to the short-termism of UK management and investors, and the insouciance of government. UK software, patents and innovation too easily are betrayed.
Cash crunch
The nasty results from electronics retailer Curry’s tell two stories. Here, and in Ireland, consumer buoyancy is holding up and core profits jumped 45 per cent to £170million.
But the PC World owner’s operations in the Nordic region are a mess, with income falling and under threat from a competition probe.
The big focus for boss Alex Baldock is on conserving cash with the dividend suspended, pension fund contributions cut and capital expenditure slashed. Its Greek operation is being readied for sale.
Currys has proved a survivor.
This time, Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley, who owns 10.4 per cent, could be the ultimate safety net. Fancy that!
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