A 3-1 victory for BJP in Assembly polls set to rejuvenate Dalal Street bulls; what should investors do?

Following the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana, exit polls had suggested BJP taking a lead in MP and Rajasthan, but a strong win in Chhattisgarh has taken the market by surprise.

“The Indian stock market has started factoring in an edge to the BJP in state elections, but 3-1 was not discounted; therefore, the market is likely to celebrate with big gains,” said Sunil Nyati, managing director of Swastika Investmart.

The market has already started the pre-election rally for May 2024 from mid-November, and now this rally will get pace after the outcome of state elections, Nyati said.

BJP is in for a landslide victory in Madhya Pradesh with 164 seats against 230 seats that went on polls, according to the various media reports. In Rajasthan, it’s a similar picture with the party winning 116 seats against 199 seats that went for polls.

Chhattisgarh was the surprise factor as BJP moved past the halfway mark comfortably, winning 56 seats against 90 seats that went for polls.

Meanwhile, the Congress party won 65 seats in MP, 69 in Rajasthan, and 34 in Chhattisgarh. The only state where the opposition party managed to lead BJP was Telangana, where it won 64 seats against 119 seats for polls. Notably, the states of MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh have combined 66 or 12% of Lok Sabha seats – and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance had swept through the 2019 general elections, winning 64 seats even after losing after the state elections in late 2018.

“A stable political environment could further boost investors‘ confidence and drive the markets higher, with the possibility of benchmark Nifty 50 attaining 20500-20800 levels going ahead,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities.

Today, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world as most macro data are trending well. Therefore, this win all the more strengthens expectations of the continuity of policy reforms to further bolster growth.

Further, optimistic global trends, including signs of foreign investors making a comeback in domestic markets are major factors that will drive the upward movement, going forward.

While the assembly election outcome is a big positive, part of it has been factored in. Therefore, some market participants believe that profit booking could trickle in at higher levels.

“We could witness some profit taking at higher levels due to the end of a near term uncertainty,” said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities.

If FPIs indulge in large short covering in F&O markets and increase momentum of buying in cash markets post these results, the Nifty could keep rising at a healthy pace beyond a couple of days, Relli said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)