Summary
- Tesla’s current dominance in the EV market may not last, as competitors are ramping up production and introducing better offerings, potentially overshadowing Tesla’s shortcomings.
- Range anxiety in EVs will likely become a thing of the past by 2030, thanks to advancements in solid-state battery technology, which offer superior energy density, faster charging capabilities, and longer lifespans.
- Electric cars will become more accessible and affordable to the masses, with major automakers setting ambitious targets for mass EV production by 2030, advancements in EV production capabilities, cheaper battery technologies, and growing competition.
We have seen movies of the past imagining the future of transportation, which felt more fantasy than foresight at the time. For instance, the film industry has long been fascinated with flying cars, showcased in films like the 1930s Just Imagine, the 1968 cult-classic Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, and the iconic DeLorean DMC-12 from Back to the Future. Even the Harry Potter franchise fascinated us with the flying Ford Anglia 105E, capturing the imaginations of children and adults alike. However, past movies rarely delved into the electric cars segment. Perhaps because this mode of transportation didn’t seem as thrilling as gravity-defying flying cars, or maybe the concept of roads filled with silent, emission-free vehicles felt too otherworldly, even for fiction.
Yet, in our current times, the narrative has dramatically shifted. We find ourselves on the brink of an automotive, or more accurately, an EV revolution. It’s genuinely exciting to witness this eco-friendly mode of transportation evolve in such a relatively short time. And as we stand at the crossroads of today and tomorrow, it’s thrilling to speculate about the marvels that the next decade (or so) holds for electric mobility.
1 Tesla Will Lose Its EV Dominance
Tesla is like the favorite child that gets the biggest Christmas present, despite issues with its vehicles or making lofty promises without following through. Still, there are many reasons to buy a Tesla for now. For instance, the Tesla Model Y has clinched the title of the world’s best-selling car (becoming the first EV ever to achieve this feat), with over 747,000 units sold in Q1 2023. However, Tesla’s current status doesn’t assure future dominance. There’s a strong case to be made that, by the end of the decade, Tesla may be overshadowed by competitors addressing the company’s shortcomings. In what appears to be a tacit acknowledgment of this impending competition, Tesla has proactively implemented strategies like aggressive price reductions. This tactic does seem effective, given that it manufactured 479,700 vehicles and successfully delivered 466,140 of them in Q2 2023.
However, statistics paint a telling story. From January 2022 to January 2023, Tesla’s market share plummeted from 72 percent to 54 percent. Projections suggest this number could fall below the halfway mark by year’s end. More dauntingly, Bank of America analysts predict that Tesla’s U.S. EV market share could nosedive to a mere 18 percent by 2026. And while the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are currently the most popular offerings, the Model S sedan is struggling significantly.
In comparison, competitors are ramping up their production and introducing better offerings like Ford F-150 Lightning, Polestar 2, Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Audi Q4 e-tron, and Ford Mustang Mach-E. Automakers like General Motors, Ford, Rivian, and Polestar are already poised to dethrone Tesla soon. Even GM’s bold declaration to rival Tesla in sales by 2025 underscores this ambition. Given this shifting terrain, it seems increasingly likely that Tesla may lose its EV dominance even before the end of the decade.
2 Range Anxiety Won’t Be A Concern
The average range for an EV sold in the United States is on the cusp of reaching 300 miles. This is particularly impressive considering that as recently as 2021, the average range for new EV models stood at 234 miles. While the 2023 Lucid Air stands out as the longest-range electric car, offering an astounding 516 miles on a single charge, several other EVs provide a commendable range at an affordable price. Case in point, the 2024 Chevy Equinox EV promises a 300-mile range and is anticipated to have a price tag hovering around $34,000. But why are we so confident that range anxiety will become a thing of the past by 2030? Well, the straightforward answer lies in solid-state batteries.
These little powerhouses with massive potential in superior energy density, faster charging capabilities, and longer lifespans are poised to become the new standard in the EV industry. Just recently, Toyota made the “huge” announcement of a breakthrough in solid-state battery technology, hinting at the potential to achieve an electric range of up to 745 miles. Moreover, the auto giant is confident that enhanced versions of its solid-state batteries will eventually deliver more than 900 miles on a single charge. And we could be seeing Toyota’s first-gen solid-state batteries in its EVs by 2027. Advancements like these have solid-state batteries cheekily questioning, “Range anxiety? What’s that?”
3 Electric Cars Will Become More Accessible To The Masses
While the average price of an electric car in 2023 is $64,029, making it generally pricier than its gasoline counterpart, the landscape is expected to shift significantly by the decade’s end. Already in 2023, we’re witnessing impressive value in more affordable EVs priced over $30,000, such as the Hyundai Kona Electric, Kia Niro EV, Volkswagen ID.4, and Hyundai Ioniq 5. It’s worth mentioning that the expensive battery is the main component that gives an electric car its hefty price tag. However, we are already seeing efforts to reduce the cost of EV batteries. Take, for example, Tesla increasing the production of its new 4680 battery cell at Gigafactory Texas to decrease dependence on China for graphite and to reduce EV costs overall.
However, it’s essential to acknowledge that electric cars might continue to command a premium in the immediate future, mainly due to EV battery shortages and global supply chain challenges. Yet, the future certainly looks promising. It is because several big automakers have already set ambitious targets geared toward mass EV production by 2030 and beyond. Industry experts believe that advancements in EV production capabilities, cheaper battery technologies, and growing competition will collectively position electric cars as not only more affordable but also more economical to operate than their ICE counterparts by the end of the decade. In fact, IEA projects that global electric car sales will constitute about 65 percent of total car sales by 2030.
4 There Will Be A Massive Expansion In EV Charging Infrastructure
There’s no denying that one of the biggest barriers to buying electric cars is the lack of charging infrastructure. For instance, residents of Louisiana are naturally more hesitant to buy an electric car since the state has the lowest number of EV chargers per capita (just 8.3 EV charging stations per 100,000 residents). However, we’re confident about the exponential expansion of EV charging stations because governments and businesses are investing in more charging stations in anticipation of the huge demand that will arise (and the amount of profits is outrageous). A recent report by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) suggests that the United States will need to accommodate 33 million EVs by 2030, necessitating 182,000+ fast charging stations, 1 million Level 2 public charging ports, and 26 million Level 1 and Level 2 charging ports at privately accessible locations.
Currently, there are over 160,000 EV chargers in the United States, with California at the forefront hosting over 14,000 public EV charging stations. When it comes to electric automakers, Tesla leads the global EV charging infrastructure race with over 45,000 Superchargers. In fact, the Texas-based automaker has over 17,000 individual Superchargers in the US alone. The encouraging news is that seven major automakers — BMW, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis — plan to jointly establish a new EV charging network, aiming to introduce at least 30,000 EV chargers in North America by the end of 2030.
5 Governments Will Play A Significant Role In Mass EV Adoption
The European Union had agreed to officially ban the sale of ICE cars and SUVs by 2035. However, the signing of this decision was postponed due to Germany’s outright opposition. Now, the EU has agreed to allow sales of only those ICE models after 2035 that run on carbon-neutral fuels. The EU’s decision to backtrack from its initial plan has left many unhappy and even compromised its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. However, it’s imperative to understand that the journey ahead isn’t as smooth as it seems. For instance, manufacturing electric vehicles is more carbon-intensive than gas cars, although they compensate for this by operating more cleanly. Besides decarbonizing EV batteries, the carbon footprint needs to decrease by making electricity generation less carbon-intensive (possible through replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources).
In the United States, the outlook is promising. To date, seven US states (California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington) aim to ban ICE vehicle sales by 2035. With the current $7,500 tax credit available for some of the top EV models and additional governmental incentives enticing potential EV buyers, we can anticipate even more tax breaks and rebates in the future. This will undeniably bolster mass EV adoption.
6 Self-Driving Electric Cars Will Become More Common
We say that the future of driving is electrification, but we often overlook that it will likely go hand-in-hand with automation. We’re all familiar with Tesla’s vision of self-driving cars, but other automakers have also entered the fray, recognizing both its immense potential and big money. This financial perspective is notable, especially when you consider the estimates that the global autonomous vehicle market will surpass $2.3 trillion by 2030.
The idea of self-driving cars dominating the roads in the coming years is logical, given that most road accidents result from human error. Furthermore, self-driving technology could prevent thousands of deaths each year caused by drunk driving or speeding. Also, Elon Musk has recently announced the availability of its Full Self-Driving software for all compatible Teslas. And, although a survey suggests many people currently fear self-driving cars, this sentiment might shift by the end of the decade as the technology evolves.
7 Developing Countries Will Also Embrace Electric Cars
The record-breaking EV sales in China, the United States, and Europe are already impressive, but what makes it even more remarkable is the fact that the global BEV sales number doesn’t account for many untapped EV markets. Prime examples are countries like India and Indonesia, where EV adoption rates are very low (for now). As the third-largest vehicle market globally, a surge in EV adoption in India alone could dramatically boost global sales figures (through the roof, if you ask us).
This will be possible only if EVs become more affordable, as many great low-cost ICE options are available for consumers. Currently, EVs in India are priced about 50 percent higher than their ICE counterparts. However, local manufacturers are trying to reduce production costs by sourcing more parts locally. Also, major automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Kia, BMW, and others have plans to launch affordable EV models in India.
8 There Will Be Stylish, More Powerful Electric Cars
One of the initial arguments naysayers of electric cars throw at supporters is that EVs look boring and, at times, downright hideous. While this was true to some extent a few years ago, electric cars today are becoming more visually aesthetic than ever before. The EV design ethos has evolved, with designers re-imagining vehicular aesthetics and coming up with some super creative ways to make electric cars more efficient and true head-turners. The result? Upcoming EVs flaunt dynamic designs, replete with aerodynamic contours and commanding presence on the road.
On the performance frontier, electric cars are poised to break boundaries and set new records. While you have the fastest ICE vehicles, such as the Bugatti Chiron Super Sport 300+ delivering a top speed of 304 mph and a robust 1,578 horsepower and 1,180 pound-feet of torque, there’s the all-electric Rimac Nevera proudly wearing the badge of the world’s fastest electric car, along with 22 more records. Using four electric motors, it delivers an ultra-potent 1,914 horsepower and 1,741 pound-feet of torque, clocking a top speed of 258 mph. What’s noteworthy is that electric car technology is still in its infancy, especially when compared to the extensive development behind the fastest ICE vehicles. Given this trajectory, forecasting a future where EVs dominate not just in sustainability but also in speed and power isn’t mere optimism — it’s an inevitability.
9 The Growth Of The Used EV Market Looks Promising
Cash-strapped consumers have been trying to steer clear of EVs because of the high prices. It makes sense since there are affordable gas and hybrid options. Even buying a used electric car seemed out of the question for many because second-hand EV prices were at a record high for some months. However, Tesla’s price reductions have helped used EV sales increase by 32 percent in just the first quarter of 2023. In fact, there are some used EVs that provide great value and are suitable for the long run.
Interestingly, the United States used EV market has tripled in size in a relatively short time. This growth is largely due to a sharp decline of up to 28 percent in second-hand EV prices since July 2022. Remarkably, 40 percent of the used electric vehicles are now available under $30,000. As millions of consumers make the switch to electric cars by 2030, it’s anticipated to invigorate the used EV market further. So much so that projections even indicate the used EV market could hit $40 billion by 2033.
10 An Influx of EV Startups Will Cater To Distinct Market Demands
While there has been a steady rise in the number of EV startups globally, experts believe the current figures might not suffice to meet the soaring demand for this eco-friendly mode of transportation in the upcoming years. Presently, China is at the forefront of the EV game, with over 600 startups developing electric vehicle solutions. Meanwhile, the United States EV startups are quickly catching up to China. What’s particularly promising for the broader EV landscape is that India, one of the biggest untapped EV markets, aims to establish itself as the manufacturing epicenter for electric vehicles. This trend bodes well for the emergence of numerous EV startups tailored to meet diverse market demands.
The rise of EV startups is happening at an accelerated pace. Take the example of Vietnam’s first EV brand, VinFast. Established in 2017, VinFast launched its first-ever EV called VF e34 in just 2021 (that too during the challenging times of COVID-19). And while some EV startups will inevitably fail, there is high optimism regarding the success of many others. For instance, EV startups like Rivian, Nio, and Lucid Motors are on course to reach heights similar to Tesla’s.
